Russia's Next Target - Vladimir Putin surprised everyone this month with proposals to reform the constitution, which would allow him to continue ruling Russia indefinitely, once the current four-year presidency ends. Before Putin's announcement, many expected him to extend his rule beyond 2024 through the merger of Russia and Belarus, creating a so-called union to lead then. Putin's mockery of the constitution on January 16 makes this dramatic unification scenario less likely. However, we should not count on the Russian leader's decreasing appetite for propaganda, and Belarus remains the most obvious sign.
Talk of deeper unity between Russia and Belarus is nothing new, but efforts in this direction have gained momentum through speculation about Putin's post-2024 plans, and as Moscow seeks to secure its western borders amid the ongoing war with Ukraine. Putin has increased pressure on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in recent months, raising energy prices and cutting subsidies. As tensions rose, the two presidents met in December 2019, but did not agree to move forward on the trip. This lack of progress highlights the growing differences between Moscow and Minsk. Signs of alienation first appeared in 2014, when Lukashenko refused to recognize the Kremlin's acquisition of Crimea. The rift widened when he rejected Russian plans to set up military bases in his country.
Russia's Next Target
Despite being a landlocked country and geopolitically dependent on Moscow, Belarus has shown little enthusiasm for Putin's proposed annexation. In fact, in recent weeks, Lukashenko has taken an unusual step in making public threats and speculations for the West. If Russia tried to violate our government, as some say, you know how the international community would respond; "They will be led into war," Lukashenko said in a radio interview in Russia on December 24. The West and NATO will not accept this, because they will see it as a threat. Yes, that's right.
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A bold statement from a leader who lacks certain relations with the West, but Lukashenko, whose mother's family is Ukrainian, seems to have copied the Ukrainian playbook as he travels around the European Union and the United States. This attitude gives results. John Bolton, then President Trump's national adviser, met with Lukashenko in August 2019 in what was widely interpreted as a show of support for Belarusian independence. One month later, the United States agreed to appoint its first ambassador to Minsk in more than a decade.
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Lukashenko has hedged his geopolitical bets in a wide range of areas. He asked the Poles and Lithuanians to help him restore Russia with the sole energy of the country. He spoke with NATO about participating in military exercises, had meetings with the European Union about cooperation and visits. Looking beyond the West, China has made concessions to build infrastructure while strengthening economic partnerships with Beijing.
One area where Lukashenko has avoided getting caught in the crossfire is when Ukraine has developed a strong civil society that is able to counterbalance Russia's influence in the region. but he rests upon his goods and is torn in dissension. However, there are also growing indications that he is ready to shift his political identity and the style of the Ukrainian people to their power to resist Russia. In the past year, Lukashenko has been switching languages from Russian to Belarusian in public meetings. More importantly, it allowed anti-unification protests to proceed on a large scale, with banners reading "First Crimea, then Belarus" and "Stop the annexation". It is a high-profile act, but Lukashenko is a cunning dictator who can count on the huge popular support of Belarus' 9.5 million people with the Kremlin in any exercise. Russia's ongoing efforts to create a union state are likely to lead to mass protests in major cities. There is also a strong possibility that attempts to take over the country will be met with resistance.
Is Russia Losing Its War With Ukraine?
Despite these challenges, the ball is still firmly in Putin's court. But he may decide to move quickly rather than risk Belarus one day following Ukraine's increasingly successful example of European integration. In a symbolic moment for the country, the last week of 2019 saw Ukraine's minimum wage surpassed by Belarus and Russia for the first time.
So far, the Ukrainian official has been tight-lipped about the development of the situation between the country's two northern neighbors. Some Ukrainian observers believe that Russia's absorption of Belary is "inevitable," but argue that it could ultimately work in Kyiv's favor. Ukrainian commentator Oleksandr Khara wrote: "If Russia occupies Belarus, it will be bad for Ukraine in the short term, but in the long term, it will be another burden for Russia." "Moscow's expansion plan may not be as big as it was in Soviet times, but it has worked. However, the increase in resources is simply bringing Russia closer to a deep crisis or even collapse."
Visions of a shaken Russia are unlikely to deter Putin if he believes his government will be strengthened by taking control of Belarus. Nat cannot be expected to help. It is likely that the West will go to war in favor of a repressive dictator like Lukashenko, especially given his refusal to intervene in 2014 in favor of a nascent democracy like Ukraine. However, the Kremlin's occupation of the second European country would result in heavy penalties and a blanket of global condemnation.
For now, the consensus is that Putin's new constitutional amendment, and the referendum that follows, will keep him busy for some time. Meanwhile, Lukashenko is also a sworn enemy who should not be underestimated. He stated in October 2019: "I want our country Belarus to remain, in the middle of Europe, stable, with no firm borders." But many will watch Belarus in the coming year as the most likely stage for Putin's next big foreign policy.
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Francis Diane is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, an editor at the great Canadian National Post, a distinguished professor at Ryerson University's Ted Rogers School of Management, and the author of ten books.
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PHOTO: Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet at the Syrian Education Center in Pont Sochi, Russia February 15, 2019. Sergey Chirikov/Pool via Reuters
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This website or its third parties use cookie tools that are necessary for its operation and are required to achieve the goals described in the cookie policy. You accept the use of cookies in accordance with our Policy and Privacy Policy by closing or dismissing this notice, writing to this page, clicking on a link or button or otherwise browsing. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are worried that they will be the next target. The attack early Thursday morning in several Ukrainian cities brought to an end the memory of those regions under heavy Soviet control for decades.
People, including Ukrainians, take part in a demonstration in support of Ukraine outside the Russian Embassy in Tallinn, Estonia, Thursday. Estonia is one of the three Baltic states that were under Soviet rule for decades. (Raul May / Associated Press)
From the perspective of Paris, London and Washington, the events taking place in Ukraine can be seen as cold news
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